12
Sep

Coronavirus statistics snapshot – frequencies slip again as the global flights slide continues; rates of decline remain small, but almost 8,000 flights and 1.3 million seats are lost in a week

Another week and another shallow decline in global frequencies continues the general trend that has been in place since early August. It is now three weeks since we hit the peak and frequencies are now getting closer to the figures we last saw in late July, but remain above the 400,000 weekly flight level, albeit only just!

The Blue Swan Daily analysis of OAG schedule data for the week commencing 07-Sep-2020 shows that global flight frequencies have again reduced, falling by almost 8,000 departures, the largest weekly decline this side of the initial recovery. Levels have fallen from just under 408,000 to just over 400,000.

The decline may again only be a small percentage, down -1.9%, but it does clearly show a plateauing in supply as increasing travel restrictions to manage potential infection spikes hit at a traditional seasonal decline. But is this more than this? As the weeks pass and any declines continue the shallow falls could over time become more of a deeper dive.

Notably, the large aviation economies head the weekly declines with North America losing over 4,800 weekly flights and slipping below 100,000 departures for the first time since June. Western Europe has lost 2,750 departures since last week, likely due to increasing travel restrictions, while the recovery in Lower South America has stalled (or perhaps right-sized) with the loss of over 1,350 departures this week, a -16.4% decline, but still up on all previous weeks since flight level crashed as Covid-19 took hold in the region.

The big positives this week is the continued opening of markets across Africa, which sees big percentage week-on-week growth in North Africa (+11.8%) and Central/Western Africa (+7.2%), albeit both from low bases. Southern Africa and Eastern Africa remain stable with small declines of -0.2% and -0.6%, respectively.

READ MORE via The Blue Swan DailyCoronavirus statistics snapshot – frequencies slip again as the global flights slide continues; rates of decline remain small, but almost 8,000 flights and 1.3 million seats are lost in a week