A glance into the crystal ball – domestic air travel is shaping the recovery, but the scale and shape looks very different between countries
Right now it is hard to accurately see months, weeks, even days ahead and that is a major hurdle for the travel and transport and hospitality industries. The uncertainty of the unprecedented times we find ourselves in remains a heavy dark cloud over the path to recovery. As recent examples across many parts of the world have shown, the Covid-19 crisis could seem fully under control, but just days later travel bans, quarantines and lockdowns are back in force.
We have highlighted previously that there is no one roadmap to recovery and hurdles are very different at local, regional and national levels. As expected, domestic is recovering before international, but just because a country has a strong domestic market does not mean it is guaranteed to see a similar scale of recovery. There are far too many variables.
Derek Sadubin, managing director at aviation and travel industry market intelligence specialist CAPA – Centre for Aviation, perfectly highlighted the complexity of projecting the future path for domestic travel at the recent CAPA Australia Pacific 2020 Aviation Summit during a whistle-stop tour of some of the leading world aviation markets.
Using the company’s Air Capacity Models which deliver future airline capacity development projections based on expert assumptions of when activity may adjust on a country-by-country basis, he showed that overall the recovery has been patchy. Notably, while China is leading the way, he said Australia is “one of the worst performing domestic aviation markets globally, despite one of the world’s best records on containing Covid”.
READ MORE via The Blue Swan Daily: A glance into the crystal ball – domestic air travel is shaping the recovery, but the scale and shape looks very different between countries